Netflix is Coming, Netflix is Coming


That’s the title of my article that was just published in Television 2014 – International Key Facts. This highly respected annual publication asked me to try to predict what would happen when Netflix launches in Germany, Austria, France, Belgium, Switzerland and Luxembourg this fall.

Obviously, the question everyone wants to know is how successful the OTT offering will be in these new countries: how many paying subscribers will they get in the first year? Given my role at Deloitte, I can’t answer that question. But I realised that if I took all the publicly available information about Netflix and put it together in some new ways, I could make six predictions that are likely to apply to the six new countries! Click on this link to download a PDF of the full article: TVKF 2014_Article Duncan Stewart

But if you want a quick summary:

  1. Within countries, adoption will vary by language and by region.
  2. Adoption will likely vary by gender, age and education.
  3. Even if Netflix is highly successful, it will likely have little impact on traditional TV.
  4. Or on traditional Pay TV services.
  5. But for one part of the population, Netflix IS likely to change traditional TV viewing.
  6. Netflix, and other forms of OTT video, are likely to have long-term effects on telecom infrastructure and regulatory policy.

Please read the full article to understand the deeper implications of these six findings. And if you want to download the full document, you need to go to this link and register:


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