People often wonder how the predictions I make can be so accurate. Sometimes it takes a great deal of research, but here is an example from this year that was much simpler.
Last fall there were many media stories about consumer 3D printers for under $1,000 — and how this was an important disruption and would lead to “a factory in every home.” Competing forward looking think pieces parroted the hype, but we didn’t. What gave us that insight?
Really simple stuff. I went online and read reviews and user blogs. Then I asked a couple of friends on social media who had recently bought a home 3D printer. Literally every single source I went to (100%!) told the same story:
The printers were hard to set up, broke down frequently, worked very slowly, took repeated attempts to make even a single decent object…and at the end of the process made small plastic objects that looked like a reject from a Happy Meal. 🙂
Many of the users were glad they had experimented with the technology, and felt they learned some useful skills. But virtually everyone printed for a few weeks or months, and then put the machine in the basement or the garage, where it kept the pasta-maker company.
Yesterday, 3D Systems, one of the two major manufacturers of consumer 3D printers, announced it was exiting that business. The enterprise market is still great (and 3D Systems is a big player in that space), but the factory in every home remains science fiction, at least for now.
Yes, one third of 2015’s best-selling books are adult coloring books. No, it doesn’t mean what you think it means.
There was great rejoicing by those who love print books when Nielsen released the chart at top. Not only were eBooks not taking over, but print book sales in the US were rising for the second straight year: 571 million sold as of early December 2015, compared to 559 million for all of 2014.
“Don’t start celebrating just yet” warned one columnist (the always insightful Mathew Ingram @mathewi): publishers were saying that one of the reasons print book sales were up was the popularity of books by YouTube celebrities and adult colouring books. And it’s true: if you look at the Amazon best-selling books of 2015 (updated daily!) or in the screenshot below, you can see that five out of the top 15 are indeed colouring books, with The Martian (my personal favourite geek book of the year) down in #16 place.
Assuming normal seasonality, a lot of print books are going to get sold around Christmas in the US, so that the 2015 print number will likely be 590-600 million, or 30-40 million more than 2014. Just how much of that growth is due to (shudder) colouring books?
Less than you think. The book industry is very much UNLIKE the movie industry. As you can see from the chart below, the percentage of total North American (US and Canada) box office receipts from the top five films has been climbing for years. Over 42% in 2014, the top five contribution will likely be even higher in 2015 due to the record breaking performance of the newest Star Wars installment. In the movie business, it is “all about the blockbuster.”
That’s not the case for books. As above, there were 559 million print books sold in the US in 2014. The top selling book was The Fault in Our Stars, which sold 3.5 million copies across three versions (hardcover, trade paperback, and movie tie in paperback.) But if I add up the combined sales of the top TEN books (not top five, as in movies) they sold just over 11 million copies. Or about 2% of annual book sales.
The book market has its best-seller list. But the book market is so fragmented that even the most popular books don’t really have a significant impact on overall sales.
Yes, adult colouring books were bigger this year than last. And they did make up a portion of the best seller list. But based on the 2014 distribution of sales for best-sellers, I estimate that the five colouring titles that made it into the top 15 would have sold around 4 million copies.
Which is 0.7% of total print book sales for the year, or only about 10-13% of the 30-40 million additional unit sales that we will see in 2015.
I think I will go back to celebrating! Print books are alive and well, and things like colouring books are only a small part of the story.